Here’s what went well and not so well for Progressives.
The Good News
The Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives. This was critical to placing at least one check on the power of a president without boundaries or guiding principles. This was a must win, and the voters came through, not in spectacular fashion, but with enough votes to overcome a massive gerrymandering disadvantage.
More women have been elected to Congress than ever before. As Alex Wagner and John Heilemann commented, there was no blue wave, but there was a pink wave. That pink wave is going to change the tone in Washington.
A number of fresh, new faces have entered the national political arena, largely by virtue of these House races. This was a good sign for the future of Progressive leadership, and many of its current leaders are aging.
The Somewhat Good News
Governor’s races followed geographical expectations. Democrats picked up states in the North and the Pacific Northwest. Republicans held onto and expanded governorships in the South and Midwest.
Democratic pickups include -
- Maine - Janet Mills succeeds retiring governor LePage, a Republican of questionable ethics.
- Michigan - Gretchen Whitmer takes over a state where the Flint water crisis was triggered by deregulation enacted by a Republican administration.
- Wisconsin - Tony Evers defeats Scott Walker, a nemesis of labor and progressive values.
- Kansas (surprise!) - Laura Kelly defeats Kris Kobach, a champion of voter suppression.
And three out of these four winners are women. The pink wave continues!
The Bad News
There’s no way to put this nicely. The Dems got their butts kicked in the Senate, and they got their butts kicked by DJ Trump, who clearly still wields significant political clout. To be fair, the man doesn’t really do anything except campaign and play golf, and he gets free press coverage wherever he goes, but he was able to inspire the faithful to show up. There was no referndum on the president this year. His controversial policies have not done him significant political harm.
With an expanded majority, Mitch McConnell can push through more right-wing judges, and Democrats are powerless to stop him. Further, while it’s conceivable that DJT could be impeached by a Democratic House of Representatives, the probability of him being convicted by a friendly Senate seems all but impossible. The Republican Party is the party of Trump, and they sink or swim based on how deeply they bow to the altar of his ego.
Demographics, Turnout, and Other Imponderables
Florida mystifies me. Elections in Florida are like wrestling exhibitions where the winners are predetermined, and the winners are always Republican by a narrow margin. This is the state that George W. Bush won by less than six hundred votes.
We heard about the energized youth vote inspired by the Parkland shooting. Where were their votes? They didn’t seem to have any impact.
We heard about residents of Puerto Rico moving to Florida after Hurricane Maria so the could have their votes counted. Where were those votes?
I tend to be cynical when people suggest that changing demographics will have an impact on elections. It just never seems to work out as expected.
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