Evaluating Anti-Terrorism Effectiveness

In the aftermath of the terror attacks on New York and Washington on 11 September 2015, the government of the United States was compelled to take action. The scale of the terrorist attacks that occurred on that day was unprecedented. The world expected a response, and our citizens demanded it.

Over the next several years, the U.S. government -

- established secret prisons (one of them, a permanent installation).

- tortured prisoners.

- established a new classification of defendants as 'enemy combatants'.

- set up secret military courts with almost no transparency of process.

- consolidated power into a massive Homeland Security agency under the direction of the Executive Branch.

- implemented wide-reaching clandestine domestic surveillance programs.

- waged war in two countries, eventually installing a new government in one of them.


The price of the two wars was staggering:

- US $2 trillion (million million) expended.

- 5,269 American servicemen and women killed (and counting).

- tens of thousands of American servicemen and women afflicted with severe physical and psychological injuries.

- hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties in the theaters of operation.


This was a massive response, but just about everyone felt that it was necessary. Some of the ideas that were employed were controversial; our leaders assured us that this was the price of security, that we had to do these things to ensure some level of safety against future terrorist attacks.

But was America's response effective? Did it achieve its stated goal of combatting terrorism?

- Clearly, terrorism still exists. Deadly terrorist attacks occur globally almost every day.

- The Taliban still exists and still wields influence throughout Afghanistan.

- Al Qaeda not only still exists, but it has expanded into North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.

- Boko Haram, which didn't exist previously, is actively terrorizing Nigeria.

- ISIS, the terror organization started by remnants of the Iraq's deposed military, has rapidly emerged as the most dangerous terrorist organization in the world. 


Cause and effect is difficult to determine in complex situations. Al Qaeda was already a powerful organization. It might have expanded regardless of Western actions.

ISIS, or something like it, might have evolved even if the Iraq war had never happened. Instability in Syria might have been enough to trigger its genesis.

What is clear is that America's post-9/11 response did not eradicate terrorism. It didn't even do much to slow it down. 

Moving forward, new solutions must be devised. I'm certain that everyone has ideas as to how to prosecute such a battle, from the nuanced to the draconian.

The important ideas are to select strategies with a high probability of success (i.e. better than what we have tried in the past), to evaluate the effectiveness of those strategies in real time, and to modify or abandon methods that don't produce results.

Now, in the aftermath of the horrible attacks on Paris on Friday, 13 November 2015, fourteen years, two months, and two days since the 9/11 attacks in the USA, the world once again is demanding a response. Let's do our best to ensure that it is effective.

Copyright © 2015 Daniel R. South 

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